Laura Warlow
Graduate Student

The Pennsylvania State University
505 Ag Sciences & Industries Building
University Park, PA 16802

Phone: 814-863-1815
Email: lmw253@psu.edu

Advisor: Dr. Ottar Bjornstad

Degree Sought: Ph.D.  in Biology

Distance-based models have historically been used to model the spread of pathogens; these models have proven accurate for particular diseases, such as rabies. However, distance-based models may not be adequate for acute pathogens of social mammals, due to the fact that the host movement contributes to disease spread. A new class of models ­ gravity models ­ proposes to predict the spatial spread of pathogens in social mammals as a function of the movement and social networks of these animals. Gravity models, originally developed in transportation theory and sociology, have not yet been applied to disease spread among mammals. I am interested in applying gravity models to the spread of phocine distemper virus (PDV), which is closely related to human measles and affects harbor seals. It provides an ideal system to investigate the potential use of gravity models to predict the spread of pathogens among social animals. The disease data will be used to determine which model class is more accurate to describe pathogen transmission.